The trade war is back and confusing as ever

President Trump just said “sike” once again to everyone anxiously anticipating the end of his 90-day tariff pause.

Today, the White House announced the July 9 tariff deadline is being kicked down the road to August 1—but that was no solace to investors, who got hit with a whole new set of tariff announcements and sent stocks lower.

Trump announced via Truth Social that he will impose 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea starting August 1, as well as a 30% levy on South Africa. He also announced a 25% tariff on Malaysia and Kazakhstan, and 40% on Laos and Myanmar.

That’s not all: Last night, Trump also threatened an extra 10% tariff on countries that supported the “anti-American” policies of BRICS nations, which are convening in Rio de Janeiro. The countries, which include Brazil, India, China, South Africa, and others, put out a statement condemning Trump’s trade policy on Sunday (without mentioning him by name).

Liberating investors from answers

While the stock market typically hates uncertainty, the S&P 500 managed to hit a fresh all-time high last week amid the tariff ambiguity. Despite geopolitical tensions rising, a trade war truce in the wind, and fears that inflation could reignite, traders focused on the good news: The economy appeared to be on firmer footing than feared and the White House seemed willing to engage in trade talks.

But just because the market has been keeping calm and carrying on in the first half of 2025, doesn’t mean it will do the same for the Liberation Day sequel. “Given that impacts from tariffs have been limited on the economy and corporate profits thus far (but are widely expected to be more visible in the second half), we believe investors' more sanguine assumptions about the investing landscape leave stocks susceptible to periods of elevated volatility,” wrote Ameriprise Chief Market Strategist Anthony Saglimbene today.

Looking ahead…other tariff dates to watch (other than Aug. 1) include July 21, which is when the US and Canada, our biggest trading partner, must reach a deal, or else higher tariffs could kick in. August 12 is when the pause between the US and China expires.—LB