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November 21, 2024 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

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Good afternoon. On this day in 1995, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 5000 for the first time ever—a mere nine months after closing above 4,000.

At the time, the investing public was shocked at how quickly the index had hit another major milestone. It took the Dow 87 years to rise above 1,000 for the first time, with 1,000-point landmarks coming only once every few years after that.

Nowadays, that slow-but-steady climb seems almost quaint. The Dow has hit a new 1,000-point milestone at an average rate of every 1.5 months in 2024, rising from 38,000 at the end of January to 44,000 earlier this month—and considering the end of the year often brings a last-minute rally, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it pop above 45,000 soon enough.

—Mark Reeth & Lucy Brewster

MARKETS

Nasdaq

18,972.42

S&P

5,948.71

Dow

43,870.35

Nvidia

$146.67

Oil

$70.21

Bitcoin

$97,740.80

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Investors bailed on tech today following Nvidia’s tepid earnings results yesterday afternoon. But they bought into economically sensitive stocks, many of which live in the Dow, sending the index soaring.
  • Speaking of, Nvidia spent the day trying to pick a direction as investors digested good-but-not-great earnings from the semiconductor stock.
  • Oil popped back above $70 as Ukraine and Russia exchanged long-range missiles, with the thought that the escalating conflict could include Russian energy infrastructure.
  • Bitcoin climbed on the news that SEC Chair and sworn crypto enemy Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, 2025.
 

CRYPTO

MicroStrategy's macro strategy

Bitcoin symbol in a store Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Just wrapping your head around how cryptocurrency actually works is difficult. But understanding how MicroStrategy transformed itself from a run-of-the-mill software firm into the most popular bitcoin stock on the market is downright mind-boggling.

The short version: Michael Saylor, the co-founder of MicroStrategy, is a huge bitcoin bull. His software company started buying bitcoin in 2020, even selling debt to finance more bitcoin purchases. Now, MicroStrategy has amassed its own hoard of 331,200 bitcoins worth about $31 billion, making it one of the biggest bitcoin investors in the world.

The firm measures its gains using something called a “BTC yield,” which is the percentage change over time in how many bitcoins per share MicroStrategy owns. If that term doesn’t ring a bell, don’t feel bad—it’s probably because the company made the metric up.

Saylor’s bitcoin-buying zeal has transformed the stock into a key play for bitcoin bulls hungry for new and innovative ways to invest in their favorite cryptocurrency. As a result, MicroStrategy shares have jumped 114% in the last month alone. Year-to-date, the stock is up about 650%, and its market cap has breached $100 billion, making it as large as some of the biggest names on the S&P 500.

The flip side: Citron Research delivered a cold, hard reality check to MicroStrategy today, unveiling a short position on the company given that “Bitcoin investing is easier than ever” in vehicles like ETFs and through crypto exchanges. “$MSTR’s volume has completely detached from BTC fundamentals,” Citron explained in an X post. MicroStrategy shares tumbled around 20% in response.

The criticism is particularly cutting given Citron was once the first research firm to recommend MicroStrategy back in 2020.

Citron has a point: With the advent of spot bitcoin ETFs, you don’t really need to buy a bitcoin stock to gain exposure to cryptocurrency through an SEC-regulated investment vehicle. Even if you’re a fan of Saylor’s bold strategy, it’s tough to justify the company’s enormous leap in valuation—especially when the company’s balance sheet is filled with terms management made up.

Should you mine your portfolio for digital gold?

But as bitcoin ascends toward $100,000, the crypto mania is only gaining steam—warranted or not.

One play is investing in the companies that help power the boom, like bitcoin miners. While MicroStrategy largely gets its street cred from investing in bitcoin, stocks like CleanSpark Inc., Mara Holdings, and Core Scientific that all mine crypto are alternative ways to bet on bitcoin.

And with President-elect Trump hoping to ensure that all future bitcoin is mined in the US, the latest bitcoin bonanza isn’t likely to flare out anytime soon.—LB

   

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STOCKS

The biggest winners and losers on the stock market today

🟢 What’s up

  • Data analytics firm Snowflake soared 32.71% after posting impressive earnings, including a 28% increase in revenue last quarter.
  • BJ’s Wholesale Club has had an okay year, but its latest earnings report gave shareholders plenty to cheer. The big news: BJ’s is increasing its membership fee for the first time in seven years. Shares rose 8.24%.
  • Despite the fact that the world’s largest farming equipment manufacturer sees a big slowdown ahead, Deere beat earnings estimates last quarter, which was enough to help shares climb 8.12%.

What’s down

  • It took a second, but it’s finally registering that Alphabet may be forced by the Department of Justice to divest its popular Chrome browser. Shares fell 4.74% as investors digest this stark reality.
  • Speaking of search engines, Baidu sank 5.90% after the Chinese tech stock missed analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue last quarter.
  • Speaking of Chinese companies, PDD Holdings, parent company of online retailer Temu, reported higher earnings and revenue last quarter—but it still fell short of analyst forecasts. Shares dropped 10.64%.
  • Speaking of struggling retailers, Beyond Inc., the company that owns Bed, Bath & Beyond and Overstock.com, was supposed to invest $40 million into struggling retailer The Container Store. Unfortunately for both, the deal fell through. Shares of Beyond sank 2.87%, while The Container Store dropped 9.79%.

HEARD ON THE STREET

Quote of the day

“We have seen considerable progress in lowering inflation since early 2023, but progress seems to have stalled in recent months.”

Although the Fed’s dual mandate of lowering inflation and supporting employment seems to have shifted totally to the labor market, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman is keeping her eye on the prize.

Inflation used to be so hot (literally and figuratively), but the investors’ attention turned to the labor market when a surprisingly terrible August jobs report sent stocks spiraling. Since then, markets have been totally focused on jobs, the election, crypto, and all the other hot topics du jour, while apparently presuming that inflation no longer matters

In a recent speech, Bowman channeled Kobe Bryant and pointed out that the job’s not finished. Core PCE has remained flat instead of heading lower, CPI and PPI are both flat or higher, and until the housing market loosens up (hopefully soon, as you’ll read below), there’s going to be “persistently high core inflation,” she said.

So while the daily market moves may grab your attention, remember that inflation is still lurking out there—and that there’s a new president heading for office whose proposed policies may exacerbate the problem.

REAL ESTATE

The housing market is right at home

A house trapped inside a melting ice cube. Francis Scialabba

“Housing market” and “good news” probably aren’t words you’ve heard in the same sentence lately.

But we have some: Home sales finally rose in October—a light at the end of the tunnel after years of a deepening housing crisis due to ridiculously unaffordable prices and elevated mortgage rates.

Existing home sales jumped 3.4% from September to October and 2.9% year over year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today. That’s the biggest annual jump since July 2021—though still below pre-pandemic levels.

The NAR explained that the increase was largely due to more housing inventory coming to the market.

“The residential market has some headwinds from low supply and high borrowing costs, but the rise in consumer wealth has allowed more households to afford the median priced home,” wrote Chief Economist for LPL Financial Jeffrey Roach in a note today.

It’s all about rates

Does that mean it's time to make your craziest Zillow dreams a reality? Probably not. The median home price still rose 4% year over year in October to reach $407,200, according to the NAR.

Mortgage rates are the key to unlocking further relief for hopeful homebuyers, the pros say.

“For most first-time homebuyers, mortgage financing is critically important,” wrote chief economist of the NAR Lawrence Yun in a statement.

Here’s where it gets weird: Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates in September for the first time since 2020, mortgage rates have actually moved up over the past few months.

Why? Investors are pricing in the inflationary cost of President-elect Trump’s proposed tariff policy, as well as considering that the Fed may not slash rates as much and as quickly as originally projected.

While future rate cuts are expected to drive mortgage rates lower, they likely won’t drop back to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.

And experts still expect housing prices to keep climbing into 2025.

So for now, keep all those Zillow listings you’ve been saving on the back burner.—LB

   

Together With Invesco QQQ

Invesco QQQ

NEWS

What's going on in financial markets today
  • Good news for the Fed: Initial jobless claims fell to a 7-month low this week, the latest sign that the labor market remains healthy.
  • Bad news for turkeys: The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal is getting lower.
  • Spirit Airlines is just the latest in a long line of companies to go under. Here’s a brief history of airline bankruptcies.
  • Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo is getting into the venture capital business.
  • Regulating the AI industry is a hot topic, with AI bills introduced in 45 states in 2024 alone.
  • Here’s a headline we didn’t see coming: The Chilean mafia is stealing salmon in bulk.

CALENDAR

What is happening in the world of finance tomorrow

Earnings season is winding down, and while there’s still a few announcements coming next week that are worth watching, tomorrow’s pretty quiet as far as quarterly reports go.

As for economic reports, there’s only two to keep an eye on: Services and Manufacturing PMI.

The PMI, or the purchasing managers’ index, is a monthly survey of American companies by the Institute of Supply Management asking detailed questions about business conditions such as production and inventory levels.

Things have been humming in the services sector for a while now—economic activity there rose to 56% (anything over 50% means economic expansion) last month, the fourth straight month of higher readings. In fact, it was the highest reading since July 2022.

Manufacturing, on the other hand, has been down in the dumps for ages. Last month’s reading of 46.5% (anything under 50% means economic contraction) marked the seventh straight month of lower readings.

Interest rate cuts should make it cheaper to take out loans, which will in turn allow manufacturers to invest in things like heavy machinery that will eventually lead to more manufacturing. But it takes time for rate cuts to make themselves felt in the sector, and economists aren’t sure exactly when things will turn around.

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