For months now, the labor market has remained a relatively bright spot in a rocky macroeconomic environment plagued by persistent inflation and waning consumer sentiment—sort of like that one solid friend you can rely on to keep it together during a crisis when everyone else freaks out.

But even the most calm and collected among us can feel strained under enough pressure. Today, new data from the Labor Department showed that the US is still consistently adding new jobs. However, unemployment unexpectedly rose, indicating that the job market is weakening.

“What today’s report showed us was that there is a very gradual, but persistent, moderation within the broader employment picture,” wrote BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder in a note today. “After a stronger than expected May report that seemed to contradict some slowing in other employment indicators, such as the JOLTS, ISM, Claims, and ADP data, today’s report depicted what appears to be a more consistent trend of slowing, while still decent, labor demand,” he noted.

Overall, this week’s massive jobs data dump was a mixed bag. Parsing through it all and figuring out what comes next is no easy task, but economists largely say the latest jobs numbers could pave the way to a soft landing scenario.

Here is a breakdown of this week’s jobs data:

• Job openings rose: On Tuesday, the JOLTS report revealed job openings hit 8.14 million in May, a sign of a strong labor market. Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings per unemployed worker fell to 1.22, a level it hasn’t hit since before the pandemic.
• Private sector jobs took a hit: On Wednesday, ADP reported 150,000 private sector jobs were created in June—the smallest gain in five months, illustrating stagnating growth for non-farm jobs.
• There’s an influx of jobs: Today’s jobs report showed that the economy added 206,000 jobs last month, beating forecasts of 200,000, and making June the 42nd consecutive month of job growth. However, the gain is lower than the 272,000 jobs added in May.
• Unemployment rises: The unemployment rate hit 4.1%, up 4% from the month prior, making June the first time the unemployment rate surpassed 4% since November 2021.
• Wages are catching up with inflation: Average hourly earnings only rose 0.3% from last month, and were up 3.9% from a year prior, which was in line with Wall Street expectations. However, wages are now finally outpacing inflation, providing potential relief for workers.
• New jobs uneven across sectors: Government added 70,000 jobs, while health care added 49,000. But sectors like professional and business services both lost jobs.

The bottom line? The new data supports a rate cut in the fall.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said that the latest jobs report supported economists’ expectations of rate cuts in September, calling the numbers a “soft landing kind of report” in an interview with CNBC on Friday.

“With inflation trending lower, and the economy slowing down (but not contracting), Fed officials will likely obtain the confidence needed in order to start the easing cycle,” agreed Chief Investment Officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management Solita Marcelli in a note on Friday.—LB

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🟢 What’s up

• Meta Platforms rose 5.88% a day after CEO Mark Zuckerberg posted a video of himself wearing a tux, holding an American flag and a beer, and wakeboarding. Shareholders apparently approve of such an absolute stud running the company.
• Koss Corp. rose another 25.68% as the latest meme stock continues to rally for no reason at all.
• Macy’s popped 9.48% after bidders looking to acquire the beleaguered retailer raised their offer from $6.6 billion to $6.9 billion.
• Smith & Nephew rose 6.67% on the news that activist investor Cevian Capital has taken a 5% stake in the medical device maker.
• Instructure Holdings rose 5.25% on the news that a bidding war is building for the education software company.

What’s down

• Nvidia fell 1.91% after it received a rare analyst downgrade due to the company’s valuation.
• Southwest sank 5.67% on the first full trading day after the company adopted a “poison pill” to fend off activist investor Elliott Management.
• Budget airline companies took a blow after a Raymond James analyst downgraded the industry due to a “clear as mud” outlook for the third quarter. Frontier Group fell 6.79%, while Spirit Airlines dropped 8.70%.
• Crypto-related stocks tumbled after bitcoin fell below $54,000 at one point today, though they recovered alongside the cryptocurrency later in the trading session. Coinbase Global fell 0.56%, Robinhood Markets dropped 0.98%, and MicroStrategy fell 1.56%.

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• The results are in: The UK has voted the Labour Party into power, along with a new prime minister, who inherits a stagnant economy and crumbling public services.
• Noncompete agreements shackle one in five Americans, but a new ruling may delay the FTC’s plan to ban the agreements for some. And if you’re wondering how noncompetes come to affect 30 million people around the country, New York Magazine has a breakdown.
• High short interest is a key factor determining whether or not a company will become a meme stock, but it turns out that’s not a winning strategy in the long run.
• Large-cap stocks are beating small caps, growth is dominating value, and the US is dominating international markets. But how much longer can the supremacy of these investment groups last?
• Hurricane Beryl hit Jamaica on Wednesday, but catastrophe bond investors won’t have to pay up to help the island recover.
• Mt. Gox is returning bitcoin to traders who had thought their crypto was lost forever—here’s what it means for the crypto market.

A new earnings season dawns on Friday, with the big banks kicking things off, as is tradition. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will release their quarterly numbers, with all eyes on how high interest rates and commercial real estate loans are affecting their bottom lines.

As for economic reports, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey comes out next Friday. Consumer sentiment dropped 1% from May to June, though economists are hoping it will recover slightly in the upcoming reading.

But the headliners are CPI and PPI on Thursday and Friday, respectively. All eyes are on CPI in particular, considering it’s the key indicator of how fast or slowly inflation is rising. Prices rose 3.3% year over year in May compared to 3.4% in April, a relatively small slowdown—though it was still a welcome result for investors that they will want to see more of next week.

For the handful of our readers out there who are also working today, you have our sympathies. For the rest of you enjoying a summer Friday, what better way to celebrate the long weekend than with an appetizer that’s going to set off fireworks in your mouth?

From our copy editor, Scott Wilson, comes an easy party muncher you may or may not want to share with your guests: Candied Pig Shots.

Here’s a tip: Drizzle these with your favorite hot honey concoction to take them up notches unknown, as Emeril Lagasse would say.

If you’ve got a favorite recipe for a summer cookout, let us hear about it by responding to this email or dropping us a line at [email protected]. Maybe we’ll put together a Brew Markets cookbook!

Enjoy this flavorful concoction, and enjoy your weekend!—MR, SW, and the Brew Markets Team