We're so back (above 4%)

Bitcoin spikes, the volatile election, and seesawing tech stocks are all well and good, but there’s nothing like a half-digit Treasury yield rebound on a Monday morning to make you feel alive again.

If you’re somehow not as enthusiastic about fixed income as we are, here’s what’s going down:

• The 10-year Treasury yield, which is a benchmark for mortgages and car loans, boomeranged back to above 4% today on the heels of a better-than-expected labor market report.
• More specifically, yields reached 4.018%, up from 3.58% last month, their highest point since early August.
• As a reminder, yields move inversely from bond prices. So when bond prices drop, yields increase.

What’s driving the rebound? The September jobs report on Friday showed that the labor market is actually in much better shape than economists feared. Because all roads lead back to the Fed, bond prices sank in anticipation that the central bank will probably only implement one more quarter-point rate cut this year in light of stronger employment numbers.

“No doubt about it, the jobs report is strong and lowers expectations for a .50 basis point cut in November,” explained President of Bolvin Wealth Management Group Gina Bolvin in a note Friday.

Who cares? While the minutiae of the yield curve might sound esoteric, it's an important gauge of how people are feeling about the economy. While we all celebrated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s 50 basis point haircut like he was personally Venmoing every investor himself, now some analysts are worried that perhaps the jumbo-sized cut was too large.

While a stronger labor market is the main culprit for investors sending bond prices lower, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and China’s stimulus plan have pushed oil prices higher, which may also be driving investors to sell bonds.

Either way—while we hate to gloat, we did warn you the Fed’s best-laid rate cut path plans usually go awry.—LB