Making sense of market moves
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2024 is coming to a conclusion, which means Wall Street’s 2025 predictions are coming in hot.
Most of them—actually, all of them—are outright bullish, and expectations are high that 2025 will bring lower inflation, higher economic growth, and yet another year of stock market gains.
Look, we’re glass-half-full people here at Brew Markets. But we’re also investors, and good investors need to anticipate the out-of-left-field, black swan scenarios that can blindside them before they put their hard-earned cash into the market. And that is exactly what the fine folks at Saxo Bank have done.
While Wall Street tries to wow investors with their crystal balls, the Danish bank released a list of outrageous predictions for global markets in the coming year. Note the key word: outrageous. Not worst-case scenarios, not out of the realm of possibility—just believable enough that you may want to keep them in the back of your mind as you position your portfolio for 2025.
Here are a few of Saxo’s outrageous predictions for the next year:
- Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar: The dollar dominates the global economy, but a second Trump administration will usher in a new era of de-globalization thanks to massive US tariffs—such as 100% tariffs on BRICS nations. Gold and cryptocurrencies rocket higher as the dollar drops.
- Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple: The company’s new Blackwell line of chips will be a huge success, propelling Nvidia to new heights. Saxo thinks shares will rise from $145 today to $250, far outpacing the rest of the Magnificent 7, before regulators get involved to stop the burgeoning monopoly.
- China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy: The Chinese government will bet it all on reflation, injecting trillions of stimulus money into its faltering economy to great success. Both the Chinese economy and developing markets flourish, while commodity prices rise around the globe.
- First bio-printed heart ushers in new era of longevity: The healthcare industry will be revolutionized by new advances in the coming years, including 3D-printing human organs. Success begets success, as startups in this nascent sector quickly go public while investors pour money into the space.
- A natural disaster bankrupts a large insurance company for the first time: Record rainfall in 2024 only gets worse in 2025, and eventually the damage from a storm is too much for an insurer to bear. Panic spreads across the industry, though Berkshire Hathaway is able to weather the storm, while the housing market is turned upside down as the value of disaster-prone real estate is re-evaluated.
Are these predictions entirely out of left field? No. Are they downright silly? Not really. But are they outrageous? You be the judge.—MR